2013 Volume 19 Pages 283-288
This study is concerned with the numerical prediction of the heavy rainfall occurred in 2012 in the northern part of Kyushu Island, which caused big floods in many rivers there. This study has two objectives. One is to validate the performance of WRF (Weather and Research Forecasting) model coupled with a data assimilation method named LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter). The other is to discuss the evolution of rainfall system based on the numerical results. It is found that the numerical model with LETKF can reasonably capture the heavy rainfall occurred at 7:00 in northern Kyushu. Numerical results also demonstrates that the high mixing ratio near Kagoshima was transported in the north direction by the strong southwest wind, which caused the evolution of a series of cumulonimbus and the heavy rainfall.
