Assessing the multi-dimensional vulnerability of tourism system in Ethiopia

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the tourism system of Ethiopia and contextual factors shaping its vulnerability. A Tourism Climate Index (TCI) was used to analyze the projected 2050s and 1980s to show the change in its geographic and seasonal distribution. In addition, contextual conditions such as socio-economic and institutional factors were assessed. The analysis is based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model outputs, structured interviews with 12 key informants who involved in the national climate and development strategy in Ethiopia, and administrative data. Results show that climate change has caused both spatial and temporal change in TCI across Ethiopia. In addition, the variability of rainfall influences overall stability of the economy negatively, which causes vulnerability and limits adaptation options for the tourism system. In conclusion, this study employed tourism climate vulnerability analysis framework, which made relevant methodological and policy contribution.