The typology of chronological developments in evacuation intention among vulnerable older people during disasters and actual evacuation behavior

Abstract

  Early evacuation of vulnerable older people during disasters is an important challenge. It is necessary to comprehend their understanding of disasters and the chronological development of their evacuation efforts. Drawing from protection motivation theory, this study investigates vulnerable older people who experienced a heavy rainfall disaster to describe a typology of chronological development in their intention to evacuate. Our investigation considers factors such as physical and cognitive function to understand the circumstances and characteristics of their evacuation behavior. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews with reference to mixed methods research. Participants’ consent was obtained after explaining that participation in the study was voluntary and that non-participation carried no disadvantage. Eighteen participants were classified into four clusters via cluster analysis according to how information about the disaster was obtained, evaluation of threat level, evaluation of response, and protection motivation. The analysis revealed a cluster of participants who carried out horizontal evacuation early, having formed a correct understanding of the situation and protection motivation based on threat level evaluation and response. Another cluster showed evaluation of response but failed to form protection motivation. These findings suggest that threat level evaluation and response evaluation must be balanced to form protection motivation and to carry out early evacuation.