Prediction of Debris Flow Peak Discharge by Statistical Methods

Abstract

Methods to predict the peak discharge of debris flow have not been established. Peak discharge is one of the most important factors when designing debris flow control structures or estimating debris flow prone areas. A lot of data from a debris flow observatory in China are analyzed statistically and empirical equations are developed to predict debris flow peak discharge. The maximum ten-minute rainfall intensity, accumulative rainfall and density of debris flow are found major factors to control debris flow peak discharge. The empirical equations are applied to Japanese debris flows. The result shows some good agreement.