EVALUATING MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF AN SPT-BASED SIMPLIFIED METHOD FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR PROBABILITY OF LIQUEFACTION

Abstract

In this paper, an innovative procedure is developed for estimating the uncertainty of an empirical geotechnical model. Here, the Youd et al. (2001) method, a deterministic model for liquefaction triggering evaluation, is examined for its model uncertainty. The procedure for evaluating this model uncertainty involves two steps: 1) deriving a Bayesian mapping function based on a database of case histories, and 2) using the calibrated Bayesian mapping function as a reference to back-figure the uncertainty of the model. Details of the developed procedure within the framework of the first-order reliability method (FORM) are presented. Using FORM with the calibrated model uncertainty, the probability of liquefaction can be readily determined, and thus, the results presented in this paper extend the use of the Youd et al. (2001) method.