Analyses of relationship between cardiovascular diseases and meteorological/climatological conditions, using the GAM methods

Abstract

We statistically investigated relationships between the mortality of cardiovascular diseases and meteorological conditions in Tokyo 23 wards, Nagoya City, and Osaka City during 15 years in 2005~2019. The generalized additive model evaluated a mortality risk for meteorological parameter changes. The results provided that the mortality of many diseases indicated nonlinear effects for a daily minimum temperature with positive extreme values in both strong cold and hot conditions. However, the air pressure linearly related to mortality of many diseases. Whereas arrhythmia and heart failure mortalities were insignificantly sensitive to daily maximum temperature under both cold and hot conditions, hemorrhagic cerebral diseases and cerebral infarction were sensitive to daily maximum temperature under cold conditions; these showed a different mortality curve to temperature from a U- or V-shapes. Moreover, a mortality risk of arrhythmia and heart failure increased with higher pressure, and that of hemorrhagic cerebral diseases increased with lower pressure. Since mortality sensitivities to meteorological factors differ depending on the type of disease, it is necessary to analyze the disease separately.