Spatial variability of the difference in dates of first flowering or first full bloom of Yoshino cherry between consecutive years in Japan

Abstract

An examination of the spatial characteristics of short-term fluctuations of the first flowering date (FFD) and first full bloom date (FBD) of Yoshino cherry is important to accurately evaluate the sensitivity of cherry flowering phenology to short-term fluctuation of air temperature and to improve short-term predictions of FFD or FBD. To this end, we analyzed time-series data from which long-term trend components caused by drivers such as global warming and the heat island effect were removed. We examined the spatial characteristics of cross-correlations in the differences in FFD or FBD between consecutive years among 48 locations in Japan where long-term, continuous phenological observations of Yoshino cherry have been recorded. Significant correlations in the differences between consecutive years were found mainly between sites located in the same region, between points located south of southern Tohoku except for southern Kyushu, and between points located in northern Tohoku and Hokkaido. These characteristics may be due to similarities and differences in the flowering period depending on the climate of each region.