2020 Volume 27 Issue 1 Pages 53-63
It’s important to cooperate between customers and manufacturers on Supply Chain Management (SCM). The one of cooperation on SCM is to share delivery times and quantities by customers before giving confirmed order as forecast order. Order forecast information is effective reference data for production planning but it’s hard to utilize order forecast information because of its uncertainty. The previous study has treated the uncertainty as stochastic model and proposed the algorithm to decide production volume by mathematical programming and theory of games. In this study, I treat the uncertainty as quantitative indicator presented by customers and define the degree of certainty of order forecast information corresponding to confirmed order, DIOF (Determination Index of Order Forecast Information). I investigate required levels of order forecast information by simulation of production performance that analyzes effects of production performance depends on DIOF. As a result, I show that simulation of production performance using DIOF can estimate results of production planning in advance of receiving confirmed order.
