SEISAN KENKYU
Online ISSN : 1881-2058
Print ISSN : 0037-105X
ISSN-L : 0037-105X
Research Flash
Estimation on effects of preventive measures reducing force of infection based on an epidemic model
Gouhei TANAKAKazuyuki AIHARA
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2009 Volume 61 Issue 6 Pages 1081-1084

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Abstract
   It is estimated that the Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 emerging all over the world in this year would further spread. Although production of pandemic vaccines is intensively promoted, its maximum amount is limited. Therefore, preventive measures other than the vaccination are also considered to be significant for decreasing the number of patients. In this study, under the assumption that the force of infection can be reduced by patients wearing a mask and staying at home, air ventilation, careful gargle and hand-wash etc., we estimate the effects of them using an epidemic model. For instance, in the case that the basic reproduction number is 1.4, reduction of the force of infection by 10% corresponds to approximately 16 million pandemic vaccines and results in decreasing the morbidity by about 25%. [This abstract is not included in the PDF]
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© 2009 Institute of Industrial Science The University of Tokyo
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