A Simple expected delay estimation method of signalized arterial roads

Abstract

This paper proposes an approximation method of expected delay for signalized arterial roads. This method is based on variational theory of traffic flow （VT）. In VT under stochastic demands, traffic flow dynamics is described as the solution of the stochastic shortest path problem. However, it is difficult to solve exactly. We, thus, propose the approximation method using the following two procedures: （i） solution space reduction based on the characteristics of the shortest path; （ii） Clark approximation. As a result of the experimental comparison with a Monte Carlo simulation, the error of the proposed method is extremely small.