Effects of infection control policies on the final size

Abstract

Infection control policies are expected to suppress the cumulative number of cases. In this research, we analyzed effects of infection control policies on the final size using the SIR model. We derived the final size equation in the presence of the policy intervention, and showed that the final size decreases compared with that without the intervention. We found that the final size may not necessarily be minimized when the policy intervention starts at the initial stage of the infection process. A numerical result supporting this fact was presented.