Future Viability of Ski Areas across Japan:An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts under Natural Snow Conditions

Abstract

This study assessed the future viability of ski areas in Japan under natural snow conditions by combining high-resolution d4PDF 5-km climate data with the SNOWPACK snow model. We analyzed 349 ski areas by comparing a historical simulation for 1950-2010 with global mean temperature warming scenarios of＋2 °C and＋4 °C. The results show that the viability of ski areas will decline rapidly as climate change progresses. Under the＋4 °C scenario, only seven ski areas were projected to remain fully operable using natural snowfall alone, whereas only 26 would allow partial operation. In contrast, under the＋2 °C scenario, Japan retains a certain level of operational viability: 53 ski areas remain fully operable, whereas 108 allow for partial operation. Ski areas in Hokkaido and high-elevation regions of Nagano showed a relative survival advantage, suggesting that ski tourism may become increasingly concentrated in these regions. The number of fresh-snow days, an important resource for ski tourism, has also decreased nationwide due to continued warming. Under the＋4 °C scenario, most ski areas experienced fewer than ten fresh-snow days per season, limiting the use of snow-quality marketing strategies. However, some ski areas in western Hokkaido and along the Niigata–Nagano–Gunma border experience approximately 20 fresh-snow days annually. These findings highlight two key implications: the importance of mitigating global warming by limiting temperature rise to＋2 °C, and the growing challenge of ensuring equitable access to skiing opportunities as climate-induced spatial concentration and price increases occur in climatically advantaged ski areas.