Climate, Population, and Land Use Scenarios for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Polices Assessments in Japan (Second Edition)

Abstract

The extent of climate change effects ranges widely. In order to make comprehensive assessments of the impacts of climate change and to formulate adaptation policies, interdisciplinary research must be implemented under common future assumptions (hereafter common scenarios). In this paper, a common scenario for Japan is proposed using the latest climate and population projections. We used the climate projection of four climate models and three radiative forcing scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We utilized the results of dynamical downscaling using a regional climate model which is consistent with one of the global scenarios. We developed nine population projection scenarios taking into account the spatial distributions of population. We proposed land-use scenarios compatible with these population projections. By conducting multi-sectoral research on climate change impacts and adaptation, the entire picture of the impacts of climate change on Japan will be revealed.