Abstract
Although most of the air pollution problems have improved in line with the appropriate regulation policies, the NOx problem has still remained. The main cause of this NOx problem is due to the use of diesel automobiles. Considering the fact that the NOx problem has become so serious, it seems natural to increase the light-oil tax in order to attain the welfare efficiency and equity of the polluters pay principle. This paper presents, therefore, a cohort type of simulation model both, to predict the number of diesel automobiles and the air pollutant volume (not only NOx but also CO, HC, and SPM), and to analyze the impact of the policy to reduce diesel automobiles. By using this cohort model, this study comes out with a model for predicting the number of diesel automobiles and the air pollutant volume under certain policy conditions. According to this simulation, the light-oil price/tax increase policy might be the most appropriate because it has an efficient effect on reduction of the air pollutant volume (not only NOx, but also CO, HC, and SPM) and might be more acceptable to the general public.
