Abstract
In order to reduce air pollutions, air quality standards are set and emission regulations are implemented in many countries. This study developed a stochastic model of air quality standard-setting processes and regulation-implementation processes in Japan and the United States, and simulated the concentrations of air pollutants and implementation costs of regulation in each country. It analyzed total regulation costs, health effect reductions, rates of technology progress, and cost-effectiveness in the short, middle, and long terms. The following results were obtained. Firstly, the higher investments in Japan lead to higher progress in pollution prevention technologies, more reduction in concentrations of pollutants, and more reductions in health effects than the United States. Secondly, results of cost-effective analysis differ depending on concentrations of pollutants without regulations, levels of available pollution prevention technologies at the start of regulations, and dose-response relationships at low concentrations. Thirdly, the distances of cost estimates to reduce one affected person per year tend to increase from the short term to the middle term, and then decrease towards the long term in the most cases.
