Abstract
In recent years, the green movement has been sweeping across our society. Some studies provide evidence on the economic value of the certifying "green buildings". It is difficult to evaluate the economic value of energy-savings investment without risk quantification. An effective method for risk quantification is the Monte Carlo method. This method obtains the distribution of an unknown probabilistic entity with repeated random sampling. In this study, a stochastic weather process model was developed with the intention of applying the Monte Carlo method. The time series of weather factors (dry-bulb temperature, humidity ratio and atmospheric transmissivity) were decomposed into four components (trend component, annual cycle component, circadian cycle component and irregular component). The cloud amount was expressed using a simple Markov chain model. In addition, the model parameters for six major cities in Japan (Tokyo, Osaka, Sapporo, Sendai, Fukuoka and Naha) were estimated using the stochastic weather process model.
