2018 Volume 43 Issue 253 Pages 31-37
In recent years, the green movement has been sweeping across our society. Some studies provide evidence for the economic value of certifying “green buildings”. It is difficult to evaluate the economic value of energy-savings investments without risk quantification. An effective method for risk quantification is the Monte Carlo method, which yields the distribution of an unknown probabilistic entity with repeated random sampling. In this study, a stochastic model of tenant characteristics was developed to apply the Monte Carlo method. Based on the past survey results, the ratio of occupancy was estimated by industry and employment type. The ratio of occupancy by age was also estimated. In addition, based on the results of the questionnaire in the author's previous study, the frequency of the starting time, lunch-break starting time, and lunch-break time was sorted. This statistical information was integrated to stochastic models developed in previous study. The tenant entry and exit model in the past study and the above tenant attribute model were integrated. The occupancy rate for each time was calculated for the entire building and one tenant, respectively, and the uncertainty of the occupancy rate was evaluated according to the scale of the calculation target.
