Estimation of Thrust Powers of Missiles or Rockets by GNSS-TEC Observations

Abstract

Water vapor molecules from ascending missiles or rockets often cause ionospheric electron depletion, which could be detected as changes in total electron content (TEC) by ground GNSS receivers. Here we present six cases of North Korean missiles/rockets launched in 1998-2017, and compare them with three examples of H2A launches from Japan. We found that the TEC drops are proportional to the background TEC for the same type of rockets, and classified the past cases into three groups using the ratios of TEC drops to the original TEC, i.e. the H2A class, the Taepodong-2 class, and the Taepodon-1 class. Missiles or rockets from North Korea 2009-2016 all belonged to the Taepodong-2 class. In 2017, two inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM) were launched from North Korea in July and in November. The first one showed ionospheric electron depletion comparable to the Taepodon-2 class cases, but the second missile much larger TEC drops possibly reflecting a significant technological progress within 2017.