Interannual Variability of the Winter North Atlantic Storm Track in CMIP5 Models

Abstract

Based on 55-yr output data from the historical runs of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) models and a NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis, we evaluate the capability of those models to simulate the interannual variability of the winter North Atlantic storm track (WNAST). It is found that the multi-model ensemble (MME) is better than any single models in reflecting the spatial distribution of WNAST interannual variability and has the smallest root mean square error (RMSE). The strengths of the interannual variations in half of the models are universally weaker than in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, the simulated interannual variability vary largely among these models in (55°N–65°N, 35°W–0°). MPI-ESM-LR, FGOALS-s2 and MRI-CGCM3 have relatively better abilities than other models to reflect the interannual variability of WNAST strength, longitude and latitude indices respectively. However, the interannual variability of WNAST longitude and latitude indices (strength index) are (is) overestimated (underestimated) in MME.