Monitoring of Recent Aridification in Türkiye Using MODIS Satellite Data from 2000 to 2021

Abstract

Simulations of future climate indicate that the Mediterranean countries will see increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. In Türkiye, which has a semi-arid and dry sub-humid climate, the coupled effect of warming and drought is expected to lead to a general increase in aridity. We applied indices derived from satellite data to provide continuous monitoring for drought hazards and evaluated recent trends in aridification and drought. Annual averaged temperatures showed a statistically significant rise, although annual rainfall showed no nationwide trend despite strong fluctuations over Türkiye. Significant increasing (decreasing) trends of vegetation (aridification) could be found in the northern, western, and southern regions, despite the rising temperatures and fluctuations in rainfall. One cause of these trends is presumed to be an increase in the nation's proportion of forest, orchard trees, and irrigated farmland. Although decreasing trend of aridification over Türkiye, drought has recurred throughout the 22-year study period in the central and eastern regions. These areas in which the annual averaged satellite-based aridity index exceeds a threshold value correspond closely to regions vulnerable to drought. Satellite-based indices may show particular promise for the major agricultural or pasture areas in central and eastern Türkiye, which are at heightened risk of future drought.