Online ISSN : 1349-6476
ISSN-L : 1349-6476
Selecting future climate projections of surface solar radiation in Japan
Hideo ShiogamaRui ItoYukiko ImadaToshiyuki NakaegawaNagio HirotaNoriko N. IshizakiKiyoshi TakahashiIzuru TakayabuSeita Emori
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JOURNALS OPEN ACCESS Advance online publication

Article ID: 2020-013

This article has a public article.

The ensemble average projections of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble show future increases in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) in Japan. We reveal that the Arctic Oscillation-like atmospheric circulation trends cause cloud cover decreases around Japan, leading to increases in the SW.

In many cases, impact assessment studies use the outputs of only a few models due to limited research resources. We find that the four climate models used in the Japanese multisector impact assessment project, S-8, do not sufficiently capture the uncertainty ranges of the CMIP5 ensemble regarding the SW projections. Therefore, the impact assessments using the SW of these four models can be biased. We develop a novel method to select a better subset of models that are more widely distributed and are not biased, unlike the S-8 models.

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© The Author(s) 2020. This is an open access article published by the Meteorological Society of Japan under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.