Where are Europe’s Welfare States Heading ?

: Analysis from the Perspective of Social Expenditures

Abstract

This study investigates the future direction of European welfare states by analyzing social expenditure fluctuations and related variables in 28 EU （European Union） countries. Although social expenditures respond to social and economic changes, they are also affected by unique features of each country, including its values, norm awareness, and institutional structure. In addition, member countries are required to follow the strict fiscal discipline imposed by the EU following the sovereign debt crisis. As a result, under structural and fiscal constraints, convergence in the movement of social expenditures in the EU has slowed. The present trend is toward maintaining or strengthening the characteristics of each welfare state group. From the perspective of social expenditures, the European welfare states can be expected to converge within three groups. The first group consists of social democratic states that emphasize in-kind benefits in response to new social risks. The second group includes Southern European states, liberal states, and new EU member states that emphasize cash benefits responding to traditional social risks. The third group consists of conservative states that are gradually addressing new social risks.