Are you "Waltzing with Bears" by bare-handed? : Three keys to understand Monte-Carlo simulation(<Special Issue>"The risk of projects and organizations" and "Mechanism and organization activity for project success")

Abstract

In this paper, I intend to enable you to understand Monte-Carlo simulation and adopt it to your project practically. First I explain Monte-Carlo simulation with "Riskology" which is a simple tool to execute Monte-Carlo simulation on your PC, developed by DeMacro and Lister. Second I prove how it explains periods and costs of projects well by comparing to actual data collected and published by SEC (Software Engineering Center). As a result, I found both of them have similar probability distributions. I believe Monte-Carlo simulation could be effective tool to manage risks in actual projects.