Japanese Journal of Risk Analysis
Online ISSN : 2185-4548
Print ISSN : 0915-5465
ISSN-L : 0915-5465
Review
Uncertainty in risk analysis
Hiromitsu OGATA
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2009 Volume 19 Issue 2 Pages 2_3-2_9

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Abstract
We need to describe or deal with uncertainty in risk analysis because risk inherently involves chance or probability. There have been many discussions to define uncertainty in risk analysis. However, different types of uncertainty appear in risk analysis in different ways. Some of them are quantifiable by probabilities, some are not. The appropriate method to characterize the uncertainty, which can be caused by incomplete knowledge or stochastic variability, depends on the kind of its source. The most important result of considering uncertainties in risk analysis is an insight that its consideration gives to the risk assessor. This review presents the basic concepts to deal with uncertainty in risk analysis.
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© 2009 The Society for Risk Analysis Japan
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