Estimation of the Risk of Severely-damaged Buildings and Deaths Using Scenario-based Prediction of Ground Motion

Abstract

In this study, we simulated the volume of severely-damaged buildings and deaths in Aichi and Chiba prefecture caused by large-scale earthquakes. We also tried to quantify the seismic risk in these prefectures using the parameters of hazard, exposure and vulnerability for interregional comparison in order to prioritize disaster prevention countermeasures. As the result, we could calculate individual risk of those in 50 years by 1km mesh areas using scenario-based prediction of ground motion. The risks caused by major subduction-zone earthquakes are larger than those caused by major active fault zone earthquakes because of the high probability of the former earthquakes. Furthermore, the damage and risk in Aichi prefecture are higher than those in Chiba prefecture, and the risk of death living in wooden buildings is from 10^-5 to 10^-3.