Scenario Analysis of Issues after the Great East Japan Earthquake (A Summary of the Preliminary Survey)

Abstract

The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 has catastrophic impacts on Japan. Japan is currently on the way to recovery. However, as the damage on the country as well as society is so serious, Japanese society is urged to change some systems including hazard management, energy policy, information systems and city planning. These changes are accompanied with social group realignments, thus necessarily followed by various risks. To cope with these risk issues, SRA-Japan established the special research committee for the Great East Japan Earthquake. The aim of the committee is, from viewpoints of risk analysts, to create and relate messages about risk issues in 2–3 years, in ten years and in thirty years from the earthquake. To do this, the committee garners SRA-Japan members' opinions about possible risks in Japan by using Delphi method. A preliminary survey was operated in 2011. This paper shows the results summarized by using KJ method.