A STUDY ON ESTIMATION MODEL OF THE TRADE PATTERN COEFFICIENT

Abstract

I have proposed a new econometric model for estimation of the long-term and synthetic regional economic effect of improving transportation facilities. The principle of this study was based on the Expanded Inter-regional I-O Analysis.
I have analyzed the variation of the inter-regional trade pattern coefficient and the input coefficient in the inter-regional I-O analysis according to the saving of transport cost between regions caused by improvement of transportation facilities, and proposed a mathematical model which explains this process. Then, using the econometric model, I have shown that the variation of these structural coefficients changes the various present economic indexes and also the future final demand and inter-regional trade pattern coefficient, and that the effects of improving transportation facilities change the regional economic structure accumulatively year after year.
A new methematical methodology for the purpose of estimation of parameters in the trade pattern model was proposed in this study. That is, the trade pattern model was too complicated to apply multiple-regression analysis directly. Therefore, a mathematical reduction which can get the parameters by trial and error method was developed.