Abstract
This paper examines the demographic and socioeconomic backgrounds of below-replacement fertility in Japan. As in many industrialized countries, Japan has experienced two fertility transitions: the first, an initial decline from historical highs to replacement levels of fertility shortly after World War II; and the second, a decline to below-replacement levels since the mid-1970s. The decline to below-replacement levels is due primarily to decreasing rates of marriage among young Japanese women, while marital fertility also began to decline in recent years. Socio-demographic factors responsible for declining marriage among women are rapid increases in educational attainment, employment, and earnings as reflected by rapid improvement in the social status of women, which in turn have raised the opportunity costs for women related to marriage and family formation. The level of fertility among married women tends to be lower than their intended and desired fertility, and the gap is larger within the more recently married. One of the major factors responsible for this gap seems to be the heavy and increasing costs and pressure associated with child-rearing. Comparisons with Western industrialized countries experiencing similar changes in the status of women in which fertility has not declined to very low levels offer important social and policy implications. Given that childbearing has remained strictly within marriage in Japan, the institutions of marriage and the family need to be more flexible and gender-equal. Labor-market and employment policies need to be more family friendly, and family policy also needs to be more extensive to help wives and couples balance their work and family responsibilities.
