Modified JIT-Based Solar Irradiance Prediction Methods

Abstract

One of the effective methods for solar irradiance prediction is based on the Just-In-Time (JIT) modeling technique. To use in micro grid management, this paper presents two techniques to improve the prediction accuracy of the one-day ahead JIT-based prediction method due to Suzuki et al. (2011). The first technique is to update the solar irradiance prediction more frequently in accordance with the updating period of weather forecast data. The second technique is to make a correction to the JIT-based prediction online based on the most recent solar irradiance measurements.

We verify the effectiveness of the proposed techniques by numerical results.