Bayesian Reliability Predictions for Degradation Phenomena Based on Information Criteria

Abstract

In this paper, it is assumed that proceeds of cracks occur due to the degradation of materials, and the degradation is estimated by observations of the crack proceeds. Although numerical approaches had been proposed to evaluate the reliability based on degradation models, a hierarchical Bayesian method for the reliability evaluation of the degradation phenomenon is proposed. Moreover, comparison methodologies for the models based on the information criteria are proposed.