Abstract
This paper presents an evaluation method for seismic reliability of important earth structures subjected to earthquakes. The method is based on design basis analysis. First, ground motion index that is strongly correlated with damage or response of the specific structure, is selected. The ultimate strength in terms of selected ground motion index is then evaluated. Next, variation of soil properties is taken into account for the evaluation of seismic stability of the structures. The variation of the safety factor is evaluated and then the variation is converted into the variation of the specific ground motion index. Finally, the fragility curve is developed and then the annual probability of failure is evaluated combined with seismic hazard curve. The fragility curves and annual probability of failures are verified with Monte Carlo Simulations.
