Differences in Opportunity Recognition for a Breakthrough Technology Between Individual and Organization:

A Case of Blockchain

Abstract

This study examines a hype cycle in the organizational recognition of the business opportunity for breakthrough technology. While the hype cycle makes an implicit assumption which ignorant actors can recognize opportunities, the absorptive capacity theory emphasizes the necessity of related technological knowledge. We empirically test differences in the relationship between the amount of related technological knowledge and opportunity recognitions between individuals and their affiliated organizations using a questionnaire survey (n = 579). Our result indicated a U-shape relationship between the amount of an individual’s technological knowledge in blockchain technology and his/her expectation toward the technology's business opportunity. Also, we found an inverse-U shape relationship between the amount of organizational information technology knowledge and the existence of actual blockchain-related projects or plans. These results imply that the hype cycle is only applicable among individuals.