Abstract
Increasing of surface ozone with the recent increase in the emissions of NOx and volatile organic compounds (VOC) significantly affects human health and vegetation in East Asia. In this study, we estimated the impact of the surface ozone on rice yields in China in 2000 as Relative Yield Loss (RYL), Rice Production Loss (RPL), and associated Economic Cost (EC) of RPL, using a crop loss function and ozone concentration simulated by a regional chemical transport model (CMAQ) with regional emission inventory in Asia (REAS). Additionally we projected the future RYL, RPL, and EC of RPL in 2020, using the surface ozone concentration predicted under three different emission scenarios of NOx and VOC: Policy Succeed Case (PSC), Reference Case (REF), and Policy Failed Case (PFC). Consequently, we found the following results: First, RYL, RPL, and EC in 2000 are estimated to be 6.4%, 12.8Mt, and 20.5 billion RMB, respectively. Second, RYL, RPL, and EC for each scenarios in 2020 are projected to be 6.7%, 13.4Mt, and 21.4 billion RMB for PSC, 7.6%, 15.2Mt, and 24.4 billion RMB for REF, and 9.3%, 18.6Mt, and 29.7 billion RMB for PFC, respectively. For this reason, RYL, RPL, and EC will be almost proportional to the emissions of NOx (RYL is 1.8% up, RPL is 3.6Mt up, and EC is 5.7 billion RMB up for NOx 10Mt increase, respectively). Third, the projected RPL in China in 2020 will strongly depend on the scenarios, because the RYL in the basin of Yantze river, where rice production is more than half of the total yields in China, varies with the scenarios, significantly.
