Abstract
Developers of small satellites may think of enlarging their effective cross-sectional area to minimize the long-term presence in the low Earth orbit region. However, the enlargement of their effective cross-sectional area causes the temporal increase of cumulative probability of accidental collisions. This paper evaluates the influence of small satellites’ post-mission disposal by enlarging their cross-sectional area on the future population using an orbital debris environment evolutionary model. According to the result of the future projections, the small satellites’ post-mission disposals by enlarging the effective cross-sectional area have the potential risk of increasing the accidental collision. However small satellites are inserted into orbit below 800 km in this paper, the fragments to be generated by collision expected to decay within short term. The effective number of objects below 2,000 km altitude is not different between the case with post-mission disposals and the case without post-mission disposals.
