Prediction of Annual Production Rates of Crude Steel in Various Countries by a Modified Logistic Function

Abstract

Annual production rates of crude steel of various countries in future are estimated by the following procedure : First, real production rates are corrected by a regular procedure. Then equations of relationship between the corrected production rate and the year are expressed by regression of a logistic equation. Estimated production in various countries can be obtained by subtracting the difference of the corrected and the real productions from the regressed amount.
For examples of results, the maximum production rate of Japan in future can be estimated as 120Mt/y. It is also suggested that annual production rate under depression in near future can be estimated.