Abstract
A macro model of Japanese passenger cars that a scrap ratio distribution is applied to a population balance model (PBM) is constructed. The validity of this model is shown by comparing calculation results with statistics of cars in use. Inventory factors of aluminum-body car and ULSAB (Ultra Light Steel Auto Body) car from production stage to scrapping stage are calculated, and CO2 emission amounts under an assumption that these cars popularize are analyzed. Consequently, it turns out that CO2 emission amount from ULSAB cars are less than that from aluminum-body cars. In order to make it equivalent to the total CO2 emission amount from ULSAB cars, it is shown that a recycled aluminum must be used about 50% in the aluminum-body. Moreover, in consideration of the effect on the aluminum industry by the popularization of aluminum body cars, time change of the aluminum amount which should be collected from ELV (End of Life Vehicle) is predicted, and increasing rapidly from 2010 is shown.
