Population Projection by Age Group and Sex with 500m Mesh.

Abstract

This paper shows the projection of population by age and sex with 500m mesh. We modify the cohort-change rate method in the following four points; interpolating secret data, calculating cohort-change rate using the data in the neighborhood of each mesh, revising the formula for computation of cohort-change rate and adjusting subtotal value. We projected 500m mesh-based population for 2005 using the Japanese 500m mesh-based population census data in 1995 and 2000 and examined accuracy of the projected data by comparing it with the observed population in 2005. As a result, the coefficient of correlation between the observed value and the estimated value is over 0.99. This shows that the result is capable of projecting population at an acceptable level.