K. Marx's Vision on the future of China and India.

Abstract

Marx said in his preface to the first edition of 'the Capital' Vol. I, published in 1867, "the country that is more developed industrially only shows, to the less developed, the image of its own future". And he thought that in the less developed countries could be included not only Germany but the other civilized ones, such as France, America etc. Then, what imags had he about the future development of the uncivilized countries outside the Europe-America World? In this article I traced how he had altered his vision of future development of China and India, in the years from 1848, the time of his 'Manifesto of the communist party', to 1859. During the first half of 1850's, he held an optimistic view that the old-established industries in both countries would be easily destroyed by cheap prices of imported commodities from western capitalist countries, and consequently capitalism would be established and develop there. But he had gradually altered this view in the latter half of 1850's, and recognized that imported commodities from abroad were resisted stubbornly in both countries by the national economic structure based on the strong union of small agriculture and house industry, and village community. Thus he came to realize that the Asiatic mode of production has stubborn tendency of stagnation. He kept to this thought after then, and described it more systemtically in the Chapter 20 of 'the Capital' Vol. III. Then, which was dominant in his thoughts in the stage of 'the Capital', the 'Golden Age' of Free Trade, the image of China and India or that of Gernany, France and America? I think that in that stage the latter image had the principal position and the former had .only the subsidiary unitil the crisis of 1873.