Statistical analysis and prediction in American football

Abstract

American football is a major commercial sport in the United States. There are many complicated situations in football, and it is considered a sport where statistical analysis and play prediction are difficult. In the United States, football analysis has been actively conducted and utilized in actual games. However, in Japan, merely a few teams have used statistical analysis in actual games.

To contribute to the Japanese football industry, we performed several analyses using statistical methods that enable quantitative interpretation by quantifying and visualizing football. Consequently, this research has enabled the analysis, quantification, and visualization of various elements of football. For example, the expected score value is calculated for each football situation, thereby facilitating a quantitative comparison of the characteristics of each team. Furthermore, among the prediction methods using machine learning, we can grasp the information that is compatible with the prediction of football plays that are run and passed, as well as the information necessary to construct a highly accurate classification rule.