Abstract
After catastrophic disaster, it is expected that serious housing shortage is going to occur
and many victims migrate to around of all Japan in order to move in private rental housing-turned-
temporary housing. In order to examine politics effects, we construct a simulation and estimate the
number of migrant households in this paper. This simulation uses the three kind of parameters, the
number of victims, housings, and victim’s demand. The number of victims and housings can be
calculated from the government statistics. The victim’s demand was calculated from the result of
questionnaire research, based on multinomial logit model.
