Abstract
Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the required number of physicians by specialty in hospitals in Yamaguchi prefecture based on the opinions of specialists. Methods: We conducted a mail survey of the chiefs of clinical departments of all hospitals in Yamaguchi prefecture, applying the Delphi method with repeated mail surveys. The questionnaire included the total required numbers of physicians and residents (5 or 6 years after internship) in the relevant specialty. Results: The total numbers of required and current physicians were 2369 and 2794, respectively, reflecting a shortage of 425. Specialties with severer shortages were respiratory medicine, neurology, plastic surgery, pulmonary surgery, rehabilitation, anesthesiology, and emergency medicine. The required numbers of residents were: internal medicine = 20; surgery, neuropsychiatry, pediatrics, orthopedics, obstetrics and gynecology, anesthesiology, and emergency = 6 each; neurosurgery, ophthalmology, otolaryngology, urology, and radiology = 3 each; and plastic surgery = 2. Conclusions: The results of this study will contribute to developing health policies aimed at effectively training and allocating specialists at the local level, through further debate among specialists, policy makers and other interested parties.
