Geo-demography of HIV/AIDS in Japan from 1985 to 2011 – Incidence and transmission mode under influence of population size/density

Abstract

A stable relation was found between number of HIV/AIDS (P) and population size (N) and between incidence of HIV/AIDS (I) and population density (D). The relation could be expressed as P=kN^m or I=hDⁿ, where k, h, m and n are constants. For “AIDS”/“AIDS diagnosis”, the constant m was 1.5 for Japan and 1.3 for USA, and n was 0.38 both for Japan and USA. These observations indicated that the larger the population size the larger the number of HIV/AIDS patients disproportionately, and the denser the population the higher the incidence of HIV/AIDS disproportionately. Considering the wide geo-demographic difference between the two countries, it was striking that the same equations with constants within a narrow range were applicable to Japan and USA. Modes of HIV transmission appeared variable among prefectures in Japan. Homosexual transmission was suggested to be more predominant in more populated prefectures.