SARS-CoV-2 in Italy: Population Density correlates with Morbidity and Mortality

Abstract

Since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 epidemic in China, elderly and multimorbid subjects showed a higher mortality rate. However, other factors could influence the mortality and the spread of contagion such as the population density. An archival research based on the Italian data stratified by region was performed in order to quantify the association between the population density, ageing index, number of positive cases, number of deaths, case-fatality rate, and medical equipment (gloves, masks, and ventilators). Results showed a significant positive linear relationship between the population density and cases, deaths, and case-fatality rate. No correlation with the ageing index was shown. Furthermore, we found a significant positive correlation between the number of medical supplies and population density, cases, and deaths. However, the medical supplies did not show any correlation with the case-fatality rate. Taken together, these findings suggest that the population density and the lack of medical equipment are key factors explaining morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in Italy.