Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. 2nd ser.)
Online ISSN : 1883-9029
Print ISSN : 0037-1114
ISSN-L : 0037-1114
Possibility of the Prediction of Earthquake Occurence in an Interactive Two-Fault System
Nobuki KAMETeruo YAMASHITA
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1998 Volume 50 Issue appendix Pages 181-187

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Abstract
We analyze the dynamics of two interactive parallel faults on the basis of a discrete dynamical model. This fault model can be regarded as an extension of the Burrige-Knopoff model. Our main concert is about the temporal variation of characteristic events on the two interactive faults. The tendency is observed that the characteristic events continue to occur only on one of the faults for a period of time; the occurence is quasiperiodic in this period as generally found for the Burridge-Knopoff model. However, the activity is suddenly transferred to the other fault at some time. The period of characteristic even occurrnece tends to alternate on the two faults. This length of this period is generally lager when the interaction are weak between the two faults. This suggests that the recurrence of large events on neighboring faults is highly complex. It is also indicate from our analysis that long apparently quasiperiodic recurrence of large events on a faults may cease at some time if weak fault interaction exist.
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