In this study several issues with the standard flood frequency analysis are discussed in the context of a changing hydro-climate in the 21st century. Among these issues the loss of statistical equilibrium in the hydro-climate of a studied region during the 21st century has serious implications on the standard frequency analysis that is discussed in some detail. An alternative method to flood frequency analysis within the framework of a changing climate based on ensemble of future climate projections is reported and demonstrated by a numerical application to a target watershed.
Generally, the remoteness of potential sites for small hydropower (SHP) which are mostly located in mountainous regions, and complex hydrological phenomena, remain significant barriers for SHP development. However, hydrological modeling together with the advancement of remote sensing and geospatial technology can be used to assess SHP potential. This study combined geographic information system (GIS) methods with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to assess the potential for SHP development in the Ciwidey subwatershed, Indonesia. Nine potential sites for SHP were identified according to criteria such as head/elevation drop, stream order, and distance between each potential site. The SWAT model reproduced the observed discharge in the watershed accurately producing an acceptable coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.75) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE = 0.67). According to Flow Duration Curve (FDC) analysis at 60, 75, and 90% dependability threshold, a maximum SHP potential total of 1.72 MW can be harnessed in the Ciwidey subwatershed. This study is expected to boost the initiative of promoting renewable energy, mainly SHP, in Indonesia. Based on these results and the goal of increasing renewable energy resources to bolster national energy security, we recommend an initiative promoting SHP in Indonesia.
Edited and published by : Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources Produced and listed by : Nakanishi Printing Co.,Ltd.(Vol. 4 (2010)) Gakujutsu-tosho Printing Co. Ltd.(Vol. 2 (2008) - Vol. 4 (2010))