Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II
Online ISSN : 2186-9057
Print ISSN : 0026-1165
Advance online publication
Showing 1-26 articles out of 26 articles from Advance online publication
  • Jaechan LIM, Hyung-Min PARK
    Type: Notes and Correspondence
    Article ID: 2019-041
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: March 19, 2019
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     In this paper, we propose an H-infinity (H) filtering approach for the prediction of bias in post-processing of model outputs and past measurements. This method adopts minimax strategy that is a solution for zero-sum games. The proposed H filtering approach minimizes maximum possible errors whereas a recently common approach that adopts the Kalman filtering (KF) minimizes the mean square errors. The proposed approach does not need the information of noise statistics unlike the method based on the KF, while training process is required. We show that the proposed approach outperforms the method based on the KF in experiments by applying real weather data in Korea.
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  • Hitoshi HIROSE, Shoichi SHIGE, Munehisa K. YAMAMOTO, Atsushi HIGUCHI
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-040
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: March 15, 2019
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     We introduce a novel rainfall estimation algorithm with a random-forest machine-learning method only from Infrared (IR) observations. As training data, we use nine-band brightness temperature (BT) observations obtained from IR radiometers on the third-generation geostationary meteorological satellite (GEO) Himawari-8 and precipitation radar observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement core observatory. The Himawari-8 Rainfall estimation Algorithm (HRA) enables us to estimate rain rate with high spatial and temporal resolution (i.e., 0.04° every 10 min), covering the entire Himawari-8 observation area (i.e., 85°E–155°W, 60°S–60°N) based solely on satellite observations. We conducted a case analysis of the Kanto–Tohoku heavy rainfall event to compare rainfall estimation results of HRA and the near-real-time version of the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_NRT), which combines global rainfall estimation products with microwave and IR BT observations obtained from satellites. In this case, HRA could estimate heavy rainfall from warm-type precipitating clouds, although GSMaP_NRT could not estimate heavy rainfall when the microwave satellites were unavailable. Further, a statistical analysis showed that the warm-type heavy rain seen in the Asian monsoon region occurred frequently when the BT differences between the 6.9-μm and 7.3-μm of water vapor (WV) bands (ΔT6.9–7.3) were small. Himawari-8 is the first GEO to include the 6.9-μm band which is sensitive to middle-to-upper tropospheric WV. An analysis for the weighting functions of the WV multibands revealed that ΔT6.9–7.3 became small as WV amount in the middle-to-upper troposphere was small and there were optically thick cloud with the cloud top near the middle troposphere. Statistical analyses during boreal summer (August and September 2015 and July 2016) and boreal winter (December 2015 and January and February 2016) indicate that HRA has higher estimation accuracy for heavy rain from warm-type precipitating clouds than a conventional rain estimation method based on only one IR band.
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  • Shingo WATANABE, Mikiko FUJITA, Sho KAWAZOE, Shiori SUGIMOTO, Yasuko O ...
    Type: Notes and Correspondence
    Article ID: 2019-038
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: March 13, 2019
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     Future changes in the climatological distribution of clear air turbulence (CAT) and its seasonality over the North Pacific are estimated based on an ensemble of climate projections under warming for the globally averaged surface air temperature of 2 K relative to pre-industrial levels, which includes over 3000 years of ensembles using a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM outputs are interpolated to a 1.25° horizontal resolution, and the climatological CAT frequency is computed. The CAT broadly decreases in the mid-latitude central to western North Pacific along with the anticyclonic (south) side of its present-day high-frequency band extending from Japan to the eastern North Pacific. Meanwhile, large relative increases are found outside the band, implying an increased risk of CAT encounters. Uncertainty in future CAT changes due to uncertainties in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature change is addressed for the first time using six selected Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) climate models. The uncertainty is greatest in the boreal winter and spring over the central North Pacific, and is associated with uncertainty in future changes in the jet stream and upper-level synoptic-scale disturbances.
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  • Haikun ZHAO, Liguang WU, Chao WANG, Philip J. KLOTZBACH
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-039
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: March 11, 2019
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     Most studies have focused on variations of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, intensity, and track over the western North Pacific (WNP), while variability of WNP TC season onset date (TCSO) has been less studied. Recent research has indicated a close association between WNP TCSO and sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean and the tropical central-eastern Pacific. This study finds the relationship between TCSO and SST underwent an interdecadal change in the late 1990s, likely due to a climate shift that occurred around that time. An observed significant correlation between TCSO and SST before the late 1990s and has been insignificant since that time. It was confrimed by the fact that ENSO positively correlates at 0.46 with TCSO from 1965-1999 (significant at the 95 % level), while the correlation becomes insignificant (0.16) during 1998-2016. Further analysis suggests that the close association between TCSO and SST is robust only for major El Niño events, with consistently extreme late TCSO following major El Niños during the satellite era. Accompanying the decay of major El Niños, tropical equatorial easterly anomalies in the WNP are driven by a Matsuno-Gill-type response to the specific SST anomaly pattern over the tropical Indo-Pacific sector. This in turn induces an anomalous anticyclone, anomalous westerly vertical wind shear, reduced mid-level moisture and suppressed convection over the WNP basin – all of which are unfavorable for WNP TCs, resulting in delayed TCSO following major El Niño events. These inter-decadal changes in the inter-annual correlation between TCSO and ENSO are largely due to the changing influence of moderate El Niño events on TCSO before and after the late 1990s. This study improves understanding of the ENSO-TC relationship, which should aid seasonal outlooks of WNP TC activity.
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  • Uju SHIN, Tae-Young LEE, Sang-Hun PARK
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-036
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: February 19, 2019
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     An investigation has been carried out using rainfall observation data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) analysis and forecast data to explain the environment and processes that lead to heavy rainfall in the early morning over the Korean peninsula during episodes of cloud clusters (CCs) associated with mesoscale troughs (CCMTs). For this study, nine episodes with maximum hourly rainfall amount in the early morning (i.e., 0300–0900 LST) are selected from seventeen heavy-rainfall episodes associated with CCMTs during 2001–2011. Case studies on two episodes have revealed that, for both episodes, 1) a low-level trough develops over eastern China and its coastal area during the daytime; 2) the strong southwesterly band (SWB; an area with wind speeds > 12.5 m s-1) on the pressure level 925 hPa over the East China Sea, which is located southeast of the trough, strengthens and expands at nighttime toward the southwestern Korean peninsula; 3) the SWB supplies large amount of moisture and increases convective instability over the southwestern Korean peninsula with a convection trigger mechanism (i.e., strong horizontal convergence); and 4) heavy rainfall occurs in the early morning over the southwestern Korean peninsula, where the exit region of the SWB is located. A mechanism for the SWB growth is presented. Furthermore, generality of the major results from the two case studies is verified using the results obtained for the composite fields of the 9 CCMT episodes.
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  • Waheed IQBAL, Abdel HANNACHI, Toshihiko HIROOKA, Léon CHAFIK, Yayoi HA ...
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-037
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: February 15, 2019
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     The interaction between the troposphere and the stratosphere has attracted the attention of climate scientists for several decades not least for the benefit it has on understanding dynamical processes and predictability. This interaction has been revived recently in regard to downward disturbance propagation effects on tropospheric circulations. The current study investigates such interactions over the North Atlantic region in relation to the eddy-driven jet stream. The atmospheric low-frequency variability in the winter over the North Atlantic sector is mainly associated with variations in the latitudinal positions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. The Japanese Reanalysis JRA-55 data has been used to analyse the jet latitude statistics. The results reveal robust trimodality of the North Atlantic jet reflecting the latitudinal (i.e., northern, central and southern) positions in agreement with other reanalysis products. Thirty major sudden stratospheric warming events were analysed in relation to the three modes or regimes of the eddy-driven jet. The frequency of occurrence of the eddy-driven jet to be in a specific latitudinal position is largely related to the wave amplitude. The stratospheric polar vortex experiences significant changes via upward wave propagation associated with the jet positions. It is found that when the jet is close to its central mode the wave propagation of zonal wave number 2 from the troposphere to the stratosphere is significantly high. Eliassen-Palm fluxes from all waves and zonal wave number 1 depict deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex for the eddy-driven jet with latitudinal position close to the northern mode. Plumb wave activity variations originate mainly in the Atlantic sector depending on the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet states. These significant associations between preferred latitudinal positions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and the stratospheric dynamics may be a source of predictability.
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  • Tomoki MIYAKAWA, Hiroaki MIURA
    Type: Notes and Correspondence
    Article ID: 2019-034
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: February 11, 2019
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     The properties of tropical convection are evaluated using one-month long simulation datasets produced by the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) using 3.5-, 7-, and 14-km horizontal meshes with identical cloud-microphysics configurations. The simulations are targeted on the 2nd Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) event observed in the CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign. An increase of high cloud fraction at 200 hPa level and a reduction of surface precipitation occur as the horizontal resolution increases, corresponding to the reduction of precipitation efficiency due to the shorter residence time inside stronger updrafts that occur at the higher resolution. The increase of high cloud fraction is followed by the warming of the troposphere, which results in an increase in the column water vapor and an elevation of the freezing level. The total water condensation is decreased at higher resolutions, which is likely due to a balance with the decreased outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The reproduced MJOs, which accounted for a large portion of the tropical convections, were similar in the 3.5-km and 14-km simulations in terms of eastward propagation speeds and structures, including the characteristic westward tilt of the moisture anomaly with height. However, the amplitude of the anomalous MJO circulation was considerably smaller in the 3.5-km simulation. The robust resolution dependence and the interpretations presented in this study underline the necessity for a resolution-aware cloud-microphysics optimization method that will have value in the coming era of global cloud-resolving simulations.
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  • Takafumi SEGUCHI, Suginori IWASAKI, Masashi KAMOGAWA, Tomoki USHIYAMA, ...
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-033
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: February 04, 2019
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     In the summer of 2016, 14 cases of jumping cirrus (JC) were observed around the Kanto region in Japan by ground-based, visible-light cameras. The cameras were set at the summit of Mt. Fuji and National Defense Academy (Kanagawa, Japan), and 15-second time-lapse photography was continually taken for the period. The location and spatial scale of the JC were calculated by measurements using the photometry of background stars in the nighttime and the geostationary meteorological satellite Himawari-8 infrared imagery. The environmental conditions of the JC were also investigated using radiosonde and Himawari-8 visible and infrared measurements. Comparing our cases to the JC in the United States of America (USA) reproduced by a three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic cloud model from previous studies, their motions, morphology, spatial and temporal scales showed similarities, although the horizontal scale of the JC and the magnitude of the underlying convection was relatively smaller in our cases. The sounding by the radiosonde in the vicinity of the storms showed that 3 of the 14 cases reached the stratosphere. However, the hydration of the lower stratosphere was not supported by an analysis of the brightness temperature difference (BTD) between 6.2 and 10.4 µm measured by Himawari-8. The averaged wind shear across the range of the jumping heights above the anvil was -1.1 ms-1 km-1. The maximum value of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) of the 14 cases was 1384 Jkg-1, which is several times smaller than those of the thunderstorm cases observed in the USA in previous numerical JC studies. This indicates that JC occurs from the cumulonimbus anvil top even if the convection is relatively weak. The motion of JC observed by visible-light cameras shows that it can transport moisture above the tops of the anvils of convective clouds regardless of its altitude as cloud ice appears to be sublimated.
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  • Akihiko MURATA, Shun-ichi I. WATANABE, Hidetaka SASAKI, Hiroaki KAWASE ...
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-035
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: February 04, 2019
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     A novel method for detecting tropical cyclones in high-resolution climate model simulations is proposed herein and subjected to examination. The proposed method utilizes a two-dimensional scatterplot based on two quantities that represent the radial gradient and the tangential asymmetry of mid-to upper-level thickness around a simulated vortex. A comparison between the modeled and observed tropical cyclones using the non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 20-km grid spacing under reanalysis-driven boundary conditions for one year revealed that no cyclones were missed and there was only one false alarm over a part of the western North Pacific near Japan. The simulated vortices were classified into two categories; tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones. These two groups, having specific features, were also found in the results using present-day climate datasets, indicating that the tropical cyclones were reasonably distinguished from extratropical cyclones although a one-by-one comparison could not, in principle, be conducted. Comparison of the results obtained from datasets with 5-km and 20-km grid spacing demonstrated that the detection scheme was only weakly dependent on the horizontal resolution. This dependence was further reduced by using the radial gradient over the outer radii instead of near the center of the vortex. The resolution-independent feature in this method is due to a procedure in which the tangential asymmetry of mid-to upper-level thickness is utilized instead of the relative vorticity at 850 hPa, often used in conventional schemes. This procedure allows the method to identify tropical cyclones without the need to determine a grid-dependent threshold. The method proposed here provides a useful tool for detecting tropical cyclones in high-resolution climate simulations.
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  • Kuan-Ting KUO, Chien-Ming WU
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-031
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: February 02, 2019
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     In this study, the mechanism for precipitation hotspots (PHs) of locally developed afternoon thunderstorms in the Taipei Basin is investigated using a three-dimensional Vector Vorticity equation cloud resolving Model (VVM) with an idealized topography and surface properties. A 500-m horizontal grid resolution is used in all experiments. The results show that the local circulation is a key for PHs at the south of the Taipei Basin. The two valleys guide background southwesterly flow along with the sea breezes to penetrate into the basin. The urban heat island effect enhances the sea breeze convergence at the south of the basin and produces strong convection there. Interactions between cold pools generated by the convection and the sea breezes produce northward propagating new convective cells. Besides, the background wind direction is important in determining the location of sea breeze convergence. If the background wind direction changes from westerly to west-northwesterly, there might be no precipitation at all in the basin. This study suggests that the idealized experiments also provide a useful framework for studying the impacts of future climate change on the PHs in the Taipei Basin by applying the pseudo-global warming approach.
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  • Tzu-Hsien KUO, Masataka MURAKAMI, Takuya TAJIRI, Narihiro ORIKASA
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-032
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: February 02, 2019
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     Aluminum oxide (Al2O3) and iron oxide (Fe2O3) particles have been observed not only in industrial areas and their surroundings but also in natural atmospheric environments. These types of aerosols can influence aerosol–cloud interactions. In this study, physico-chemical properties, such as size distribution and ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) as well as ice nucleating particles (INPs), of surrogates of ambient Al2O3 and Fe2O3 particles were investigated using a CCN counter, the Meteorological Research Institute’s (MRI’s) cloud simulation chamber, the MRI’s continuous flow diffusion chamber-type ice nucleus counter, and an array of aerosol instruments. The results indicated that their hygroscopicity parameter (κ-value) ranged from 0.01 to 0.03. This range is compatible with that of surrogates of mineral dust particles and is smaller than typical κ-values of atmospheric aerosols. On the other hand, based on their ice nucleation active surface site (INAS) densities, these materials may act as effective INPs via immersion freezing (i.e., ice nucleation triggered by particles immersed in water droplets). In the cloud chamber experiments, Al2O3 and Fe2O3 particles continuously nucleated ice crystals at temperatures < −14°C and < −20°C, respectively. This result indicates that the Al2O3 particles were better INPs than the Fe2O3 particles. Moreover, the INAS density of the Al2O3 particles was comparable to that of natural ambient dust.
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  • Type: Editorial
    Article ID: 2019-c
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: February 02, 2019
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  • Peter SAUNDERS, Yafan YU, Zhaoxia PU
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-030
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: January 25, 2019
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     Hurricane Joaquin, a notable hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean in 2015, is studied with emphasis on its unique hairpin turn that occurred between 2100 UTC 1 October and 0600 UTC 2 October 2015. A series of mesoscale high-resolution numerical simulations is performed with an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The sensitivity of numerical simulations to different cumulus, boundary layer, and microphysical parameterization schemes is examined to investigate the most relevant processes influencing the track evolution of Hurricane Joaquin. It is found that the numerical simulation of Hurricane Joaquin’s track is highly sensitive to the choice of cumulus scheme. Large-scale environmental conditions and hurricane inner-core structures are diagnosed. Results indicate that middle- to upper-level steering flows are crucial in influencing Joaquin’s track. Further investigation of the large-scale environment (e.g., middle- and upper-level trough, blocking high, thermal distribution, etc.) shows that middle-level blocking high plays an important role in Joaquin’s movement. The structure of the hurricane core region, including the vertical extent of diabatic heating, vertical velocity, and relative humidity, could also play an important role. Specifically, the asymmetry and local absolute vorticity tendency over the inner-core region and its vicinity has a strong implication for Joaquin’s hairpin turn.
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  • Akiyoshi WADA, Hiroshige TSUGUTI, Kozo OKAMOTO, Naoko SEINO
    Type: Articles : Special Edition on Tropical Cyclones in 2015–2016
    Article ID: 2019-029
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: January 19, 2019
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     The September 2015 Kanto-Tohoku heavy rainfall occurred in a stationary linear convective system between Typhoons Kilo and Etau. We investigated the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the local heavy rainfall event using a regional air-sea strongly coupled data assimilation system based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) and a nonhydrostatic atmosphere model (NHM) coupled with ocean-surface wave model and a multilayer ocean model together with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) level 2 (L2) SST product. From the validation of SST analyzed by the coupled data assimilation system with the Japanese geostationary satellite multi-functional transport satellite 2 hourly SST product and in situ observations at the moored buoy, we demonstrated that the coupled system with AMSR2 L2 SST led to improvement of the SST analysis. From the verification by using radiosonde observations and radar-raingauge rainfall analysis, the analysis of the lower-atmospheric components were improved by the air-sea coupled NHM-LETKF.

     The local torrential rain occurred around 37°N in the Tochigi prefecture was embedded in a stationary linear convective system. The location of the linear convective system corresponded to the synoptic-scale convergence area between the cyclonic circulation associated with Etau and easterly lower-tropospheric winds. Strong southerly winds associated with Etau caused enhancement of local convection periodically along the convergence area on the upwind side of the linear convective system and resulted in a wave-like train of the total water content around 4-8 km altitudes on the leeward side. The improvement of SST analysis could change not only the transition of Etau to the extratropical cyclone but also lower-tropospheric wind field and thereby the location of the stationary linear convective system with embedded local torrential rain.

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  • Wan-Ru HUANG, Po-Han HUANG, Ya-Hui CHANG, Chao-Tzuen CHENG, Huang-Hsiu ...
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-028
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: January 10, 2019
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      By using the Weather Research and Forecasting (denoted as WRF) model driven by two super high resolution global models, High Resolution Atmospheric Model (denoted as HiRAM) and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (denoted as MRI), this study investigates the dynamical downscaling simulation and projection of extreme precipitation activities (including intensity and frequency) in Taiwan during the Mei-Yu seasons (May and June). The analyses focus on two time period simulations: the present-day (1979-2003, historical run) and the future (2075-2099, RCP8.5 scenario). For the present-day simulation, our results show that the bias of HiRAM and MRI in simulating the extreme precipitation activities over Taiwan can be reduced after dynamical downscaling using the WRF model. For the future projections, both the dynamical downscaling models (i.e., HiRAM-WRF and MRI-WRF) project that extreme precipitation will become more frequent and more intense over western Taiwan, but less frequent and less intense over eastern Taiwan. The east-west contrast in the projected changes in extreme precipitation in Taiwan are found to be a local response to the enhancement of southwesterly monsoonal flow over the coastal regions of South China, which leads to an increase in water vapor convergence over the windward side (i.e., western Taiwan) and a decrease in water vapor convergence over the leeward side (i.e., eastern Taiwan). Further examinations of the significance of the projected changes in extreme precipitation that affect the agriculture regions of Taiwan show that the southwestern agriculture regions will be affected by extreme precipitation events more frequently and more intensely than the other subregions. This finding highlights the importance of examining regional differences in the projected changes in extreme precipitation over the complex terrain of East Asia.
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  • Yonglin LIU, Guoping TANG, Liqiao WU, Yuzhen WU, Muzhen YANG
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-027
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 31, 2018
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     Recent climate warming and rapid urban development in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China exerted great impacts on the reference evapotranspiration (RET), which in turn affects the management of water resources and the quality of urban environment. The objectives of this study are to examine (i) the temporal variability of RET in PRD, and (ii) the underlying causes responsible for the temporal variation in RET across space inside the PRD. The results indicate that: (1) The RET in PRD had an overall increasing trend caused by the increase of construction land during 1960-2016. (2) The increase of surface albedo caused by land cover conversion from woodland to grassland played an important role in the noticeable decline of RET in Guangzhou and Zengcheng. (3) The dominant factors triggering RET variation varied across space in PRD. In detail, the decline of sunshine duration decreasing Rn, and the decline of wind speed weakening energy exchange, were the dominant factors in decreasing RET in Guangzhou and Zengcheng. In contrast, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and relative humidity, which were the factors causing the increase of vapor pressure deficit, were responsible for RET increase in Taishan, Zhongshan and Shenzhen. Overall, our results indicated that RET in PRD exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity due to differences in land use change and climatic conditions. Therefore, the improvement of water resources management and urban environment in PRD should consider the spatial variation and underlying forces of RET changes.
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  • Yoshinori TAKASAKI, Masanori YOSHIZAKI, Asuka SUZUKI-PARKER, Yasushi W ...
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-026
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 24, 2018
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     The Okazaki heavy rainfall event, which occurred at midnight on 28 August 2008 around Okazaki city in Japan, was produced by a quasi-stationary band-shaped precipitation system. This precipitation system remained quasi-stationary for approximately 5 hours over Okazaki city and the surrounding area, and produced prolonged intense precipitation. This study presents sensitivity numerical experiments to examine the impact of surrounding mountainous topography on the quasi-stationarity of the precipitation system using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 500 m horizontal resolution. In an experiment without the mountains to the east of Okazaki city, the quasi-stationary precipitation system was not reproduced. On the other hand, experiments including eastside mountains produced a low-level convergence in south of Okazaki city, resulting in the quasi-stationary precipitation system and prolonged precipitation as observed near Okazaki city. The convergence was formed by sustained easterlies together with northerly winds blowing in west of Okazaki city. The easterlies were maintained by westward shift of southeasterly inflow from the Pacific Ocean due to the enhanced pressure gradient on the upstream side of the eastside mountains in the low-level atmosphere with low Froude numbers (Fr < 0.5). The easterlies also steadily supplied warm and moist air to the quasi-stationary system, leading to the prolonged intense precipitation observed in the Okazaki heavy rainfall event.
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  • Mikiko FUJITA, Tomonori SATO, Tomohito J. YAMADA, Sho KAWAZOE, Masuo N ...
    Type: Articles : Special Edition on Tropical Cyclones in 2015–2016
    Article ID: 2019-022
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 17, 2018
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     We investigated extremely heavy precipitation that occurred around the Kinugawa River, Japan, in September 2015, and the probability of extreme precipitation occurrence, using data from a large ensemble forecast more than 1,000 members that were dynamically downscaled to 1.6 km horizontal grid spacing. The observed event was statistically rare among simulated cases and 3-day accumulated precipitation around the target area was equivalent to the 95th percentile among all simulated ensemble members. Our results show that this extreme precipitation event occurred under specific conditions: two coexisting typhoons at close proximity that produces a high atmospheric instability, and water vapor transport from the Pacific Ocean. We also assessed the probability of extreme precipitation in mountainous areas other than the Kinugawa River case. Heavy precipitation also occurred southwest of the Kinugawa River region due to two typhoons, similar to the Kinugawa River case. The tracks of these typhoons shifted marginally; however, there was a difference in the water vapor supplied to the area, causing heavy precipitation. The large-ensemble downscaled data used in this study hence enable us to evaluate the occurrence probability of a torrential rainfall event that was rarely observed, which may contribute to updating a disaster mitigating plan for possible similar disasters in future.
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  • Yukari SHUSSE, Takeshi MAESAKA, Kaori KIEDA, Koyuru IWANAMI
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-021
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 13, 2018
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS ADVANCE PUBLICATION

     This study describes the spatial distribution of the melting layer (ML) in a winter stratiform precipitation system associated with a south-coast cyclone (SCC) on 30 January 2015 over the Kanto Plain, Japan, using an X-band polarimetric radar at Funabashi operated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. The detailed horizontal distribution of surface precipitation types based on Weather Reports from citizens provided by Weathernews Inc. (WNI reports) was also investigated in relation to the ML structure.

     Surface precipitation in the Kanto Region started with rain and then changed to snow around Tokyo. According to WNI reports, a large dry snow area had formed around Tokyo by 0900 Japan Standard Time (UTC + 9 hours), while surface rainfall continued in the southeast of the Kanto Plain (most part of Chiba and southern part of Kanagawa). A boundary line between the surface dry snow and rain areas became clear in the eastern part of Kanagawa and the northwestern part of Chiba. This boundary then gradually moved inland.

     Polarimetric ML signatures suggesting the presence of melting snow were continuously observed above the rainfall area in the southeast of the Kanto Plain. The polarimetric ML signatures, on the other hand, approached the ground near the surface dry snow-rain boundary while the surface snowfall was predominant around Tokyo. During the mature snowfall period around Tokyo, the ML vertically extended below 1 km above sea level near the surface dry snow-rain boundary, which indicates the presence of a local horizontal temperature gradient and a surrounding ~0°C near-isothermal layer. It is suggested that this vertically extending ML coincided with the edge of a cold air mass in the lower atmosphere, which often forms during snowfall associated with SCCs in the Kanto Region.

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  • Katsumi YOSHINO
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-023
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 13, 2018
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS ADVANCE PUBLICATION

     Aircrafts making landing and takeoff at Narita International Airport (Narita Airport) in Japan report frequently low-level wind shear (LLWS), a local variation of wind vector, with turbulence when the prevailing wind is southwesterly, which is crosswind to the runway direction. On 20 June 2012, an arrival aircraft at Narita Airport encountered a LLWS, which consisted of a sudden change of the wind vector from head wind component of 5 knots (2.6 m s-1) to tail wind component of 10 knots (5.1 m s-1), just before the touchdown and made a hard landing. None of cumulonimbus clouds, a front or a wind shear line was observed around the airport during her approaching and landing. Analyses of the data measured by the landing aircraft and the observations by the Doppler lidar at the airport revealed that the LLWS was caused by horizontal roll vortices, which developed in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the Shimofusa Tableland around the airport. The horizontal roll vortices had their axes nearly parallel to the mean wind direction, and their horizontal and vertical scales were approximately 800 m and 500 m, respectively. The present study demonstrated that existence of the horizontal roll vortices causing LLWS can be effectively detected by a single-Doppler lidar which utilizes backscattering from aerosols.

     Although the LLWS associated with the horizontal roll vortices has smaller magnitude than those caused by a microburst, a gust front and a front, a landing aircraft just before touchdown encounters the horizontal roll vortices with much higher probability than the other phenomena mentioned here since the horizontal roll vortices occurs at a horizontal spacing of approximately 800 m over a wide area during daytime of a clear day.

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  • Yoshimi KAWAI, Hatsumi NISHIKAWA, Eitarou OKA
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-024
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 13, 2018
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS ADVANCE PUBLICATION
     Previous modeling studies have indicated that the Oyashio front in the subarctic Pacific Ocean significantly affects the atmosphere on meso- to basin-scales, but there were no in situ observations that captured oceanic imprints on the atmosphere in this region as far as the authors know. We present in situ evidence of atmospheric responses to the Oyashio front by using a total of 103 radiosondes launched around the Oyashio front in April 2013 with continuous surface meteorology and ceilometer observations. Composite profiles showed that the low-level atmosphere below 1000 m was statically stable on the cold side of the Oyashio front, but unstable and mixed on the warm side. In the atmosphere on the warm side, relative humidity dropped sharply at an altitude of around 1000 m, an indication that the mean cloud top was at this altitude. While the frequency of cloud base height peaked at 50–100 m in the cold areas, cloud bases were distributed at higher altitudes in the warm areas. These differences in the atmospheric boundary layer and cloud base heights across the front were clearer under conditions of southerly winds compared with those of northerly winds. Above a local sea surface temperature minimum with a width of approximately 400 km, where the ocean mixed layer depth is known to reach a local maximum, a large horizontal air temperature gradient was observed below an altitude of 1000 m. This horizontal gradient corresponded to a sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly of 1.2 hPa, comparable to observations of SLP anomalies in the Kuroshio Extension region. Furthermore, we found that narrow warm ocean streamers moistened the overlying atmosphere, affecting downward longwave radiation. Over the wide streamer located between 146.4°E and 147.0°E on 5 April, near-surface atmospheric properties were largely different between over the western half and the eastern half.
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  • Hironori FUDEYASU, Ryuji YOSHIDA
    Type: Articles : Special Edition on Tropical Cyclones in 2015–2016
    Article ID: 2019-025
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 13, 2018
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS ADVANCE PUBLICATION
     This study examined the statistical characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) for which the cyclogenesis (TCG) process was modulated by upper tropospheric cold lows (UCLs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the 38 years from 1979 to 2016. Among the 965 TCs, 90 (9 %, 2.4 per year) were defined as having TCG influenced by UCLs in the northwest quadrant of the TC region (UL-TCs). Most UL-TCs occurred in the summer, with large variability in the annual occurrence rate of UL-TCs during June to October, ranging from 0 to approximately 30 %. The annual variation was related to the activity of the Tibetan high and the summer temperature anomaly over Japan. The extremely hot summer of 2016 was partly enhanced by the intense Tibetan high, when 4 UL-TCs also occurred. The average location of UL-TCs at the time of TCG and tropical storm formation (TSF) was significantly farther to the north than the average location of TCs not formed under the influence of UCL (N-UL-TCs). Many UL-TCs occurred in lower tropospheric environments associated with the shear line or confluence regions. The UL-TCs tended to move northward, and the occurrence rate of UL-TCs that made landfall in Japan was approximately double that of other countries. The atmospheric environmental parameters around UL-TCs at the time of TCG were more favorable for the development of TCs than those around N-UL-TCs. In contrast, the atmospheric and oceanic environmental parameters around UL-TCs at the time of TSF were less favorable for the development of TSs, such that UL-TCs tended to remain at weak in intensity.
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  • Mizuo KAJINO, Makoto DEUSHI, Tsuyoshi Thomas SEKIYAMA, Naga OSHIMA, Ke ...
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-020
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 09, 2018
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS ADVANCE PUBLICATION
     Model performance of a regional-scale meteorology – chemistry model (NHM-Chem) has been evaluated for the consistent predictions of the chemical, physical, and optical properties of aerosols. These properties are essentially important for the accurate assessment of air quality and health hazards, contamination of land and ocean ecosystems, and regional climate changes due to aerosol-cloud-radiation interaction processes. Currently, three optional methods are available: the 5-category non-equilibrium, 3-category non-equilibrium, and bulk equilibrium methods. These three methods are suitable for the predictions of regional climate, air quality, and operational forecasts, respectively. In this paper, the simulated aerosol chemical, physical, and optical properties and their consistency were evaluated by using various observation data in East Asia. The simulated mass, size, and deposition of SO42- and NH4+ agreed well with the observations, whereas those of NO3-, sea-salt, and dust needed improvement. The simulated surface mass concentration (PM10 and PM2.5) and spherical extinction coefficient agreed well with the observations. The simulated aerosol optical thickness and dust extinction coefficient were significantly underestimated.
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  • Takuya JINNO, Tomoki MIYAKAWA, Masaki SATOH
    Type: Notes and Correspondence : Special Edition on Tropical Cyclones in 2015–2016
    Article ID: 2019-017
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 07, 2018
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS ADVANCE PUBLICATION
     In August 2016, a monsoon gyre persisted over the western North Pacific and was associated with the genesis of multiple devastating tropical cyclones. A series of hindcast simulations was performed using the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) to reproduce the temporal evolution of this monsoon gyre. The simulations initiated at dates during the mature stage of the monsoon gyre successfully reproduced its termination and the subsequent intensification of the Bonin high, while the simulations initiated before the formation and during the developing stage of the gyre failed to reproduce subsequent gyre evolution even at a short lead time. These experiments further suggest a possibility that the development of the Bonin high is related to the termination of the monsoon gyre. High predictability of the termination is likely due to the predictable mid-latitudinal signals that intensify the Bonin high.
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  • Tomoaki OSE
    Type: Articles
    Article ID: 2019-018
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: December 07, 2018
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS ADVANCE PUBLICATION

     Global warming experiments using three different 60 km-mesh atmospheric global circulation models are studied to characterize ensemble mean future changes in monthly East Asian precipitation for June to August. During the summer, wetting and drying effects due to changes in mean vertical motion play a key role in future precipitation changes, as does the “wet-get-wetter” effect due to increased moisture. The former processes are related adiabatically to the projected modification of 500 hPa horizontal atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by two cyclonic circulation anomalies extending over the eastern Eurasian Continent (C1) and the western North Pacific Ocean (C2) for each month.

     Over Japan, the western edge of C2 shifts from a region south of the Japanese Islands to northern Japan during June–August, representing a delayed northward movement or southward shift of the westerly jet over the western North Pacific in the future compared with the present-day climatology. Most regions of Japan lie within the northeasterly wind and associated downward motion zones of C2, leading to significant uncertainties in the future precipitation over Japan by the offset against the “wet-get-wetter” effect and possibly even a future decrease in precipitation. A wetter future climate is anticipated under weak subsidence or the upward vertical motion zone of C2, such as western Japan in August away from C2, and the Southwest Islands of Japan in June in the C2 southwesterly wind zone.

     Over the eastern Eurasian Continent, C1 is distributed mainly over northeastern China in June, central and southern China in July and August respectively. During these months, most of the eastern regions are located within the southwesterly-to-southeasterly wind zone of C1, indicating wet future conditions due to enhanced upward motion. This tendency drives a further increase in precipitation in future wetter East Asian climate via the “wet-get-wetter” effect and the increased evaporation.

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  • Type: Corrigendum
    Article ID: 2019-016
    Published: 2019
    [Advance publication] Released: November 29, 2018
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS ADVANCE PUBLICATION

    “Kamae, Y., W. Mei, and S.-P. Xie, 2017: Climatological relationship between warm season atmospheric rivers and heavy rainfall over East Asia”. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 95, 411-431, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2017-027

    Due to authors’ mistakes, corrections are needed for Kamae et al. (2017).

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