North-eastern Thailand has little rainfall and requires efficient irrigation development to enhance stable sugarcane production. However, identifying the highest priority areas for irrigation development is complex because the benefit derived from irrigation development depends on rainfall, available irrigation water, and soil characteristics. We used the CANEGRO model to simulate the sugarcane yield of existing cultivation areas under rainfed and irrigated conditions, taking into account actual weather and soil type. We then calculated the benefit of the irrigation development using the simulation results and actual data for groundwater well capacities, sugarcane prices, and irrigation development and running costs. We then analysed the results of the benefit calculation by ABC analysis and the decision tree method. The decision tree analysis confirmed that well capacity most influenced benefit. Areas with higher rainfall had high yields under rainfed condition, so the benefit from irrigation was small (or even negative as the cost of irrigation exceeded the increased income). A notable finding was that low soil available water content resulted in low yields in both rainfed and irrigated conditions, and high available water content resulted in high yields under rainfed conditions ; therefore, both low and high available water content resulted in low benefit from irrigation development.
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