Typhoons have often raged through the Kyushu district, causing a great deal of damage by accompanying storm surges. In recent years, due to global warming, the concern is getting heightened about storm surge disasters which may be caused by typhoons stronger than ever. Therefore, it is important to estimate the possible typhoon strength that might occur in the future. However, it seems inadequate to use the future MRI-AGCM3.2S Data directly for the estimation of future storm surge anomalies since the present MRI-AGCM3.2S Data overestimates the strength of typhoons that hit Japan compared with the RMSC Best Track(BT) Data.
In this study, I proposed the methods for estimating future typhoon strength on the basis of the comparison of the accumulative distribution functions of lowest atmospheric pressure of each typhoon included in MRI-AGCM3.2S and the BT.
The first method is the one in which the correction coefficient α is deduced by comparing AGCM (present) and the BT in order to correct the atmospheric pressure data of AGCM (future) with α. The second method is the one in which the correction coefficient β is deduced by comparing AGCM (present) and AGCM(future) in order to correct the atmospheric pressure data of BT as the future estimates by multiplying β.
Moreover, I applied these methods to one of the strongest typhoons that hit the Ariake Sea in the AGCM(future) Data. Then, I calculated the storm surge in the Ariake Sea with FVCOM by applying the corrected atmospheric pressure by the above methods. As a result of the case using the first method, it is found that the maximum storm surge anomaly at the innermost area in the Ariake Sea still exceeds the designed level (2.31m) although the anomaly is decreased by the proposed method from 5.1m to 2.8m.
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