Causes of the Decline in Migration to Major Cities in the 1970s: A Qualitative Analysis

Abstract

In the 1970s, Japan experienced a sharp decline in urban-bound migration, paralleled by a precipitous drop in the country's economic growth rate. This paper aims to qualitatively identify the causes of this decline in migration in the 1970s. Possible causes of migration to metropolitan areas include (i) the decline in the rural population, (ii) the narrowing of income and living environment gaps between metropolitan and rural areas, and (iii) short-term fluctuations in effective job vacancy rates. This paper qualitatively shows that in the 1970s, the decline in the rural population was not the main factor in the decrease in migration to the major cities, both for all age groups and for new graduates from junior and senior high schools. For all age groups, the main factors are the narrowing of income and living environment disparities between urban and rural areas, and the narrowing of inter-regional disparities in the relative job-applicants ratio. Secondly, for new graduates, the relative improvement in per capita income in rural areas and the relative improvement in social capital stock are major determinants of the migration decline. Finally, the paper indicates that it is likely that the ‘policy of balanced national development’ in the 1960s and 1970s reduced regional disparities in income and social capital stock in the 1970s, leading to a sharp decline in population migration to metropolitan areas.