Future Agricultural Water Resources and Agricultural Production in China---Interactions between Climate Change and Soil Degradation

抄録

　Climate change and soil degradation are two major, and interrelated global environmental challenges for water resources and agricultural production in China in the coming decades. In the present study, we used a crop-specific water balance model and sets of updated datasets to assess the interactive impacts of climate change and soil degradation on agricultural water resources and agricultural production in China. The results show that both climate change and soil degradation would have major influences on agricultural production in China in the 2020s. Under combined impacts of climate change and soil degradation, soil moisture deficit would increase in north and northeast China by more than 20 mm generally. Yield index would decrease by more than 5% in north, northeast and southwest China. Climate change would dominate the general change pattern, however at some local regions where soil degradation became a problem, the impacts of soil degradation would be at the same order as those by climate change. From 2001 to 2080, in the North China Plain, there would be an obvious warming trend. Precipitation will fluctuate during the period. Yield index and water deficit also fluctuate during the period. Water resources will became severe during several periods in the region, which however depend on scenarios. Since climate change is likely to interact with other global changes, including population growth and migration, economic growth, urbanization, and changes in land use and resource degradation, more integrated process-based model should be developed in further studies to capture feedback mechanisms and social economic effects more effectively.